Q & A
The complete explanation to each question can be accessed by clicking on each Answer link directly below it. A shorter, summary explanation is also found immediately after the link. For a deeper understanding, click on each Answer.
The value-added of precision timing vs, the high cost of Poverty Consciousness
Question: It has been sometime since I have read any Elliott books, is there a book I could purchase to see RN Elliott's original findings.
Question: How does capital evaporate in a Market Crash to result in Deflationary Depression?
Question: I have been following your instructions from the beginning, & as of Friday, February 28, 2014, I'm down $2000. It would appear the problem is one of timing?
Answer Your problem is one of self-sabotaging poverty consciousness. In essence, you lost the opportunity to compound your portfolio by a low-ball estimate of at least 10%, for being too stingy to pay the subscription fee since January 10. The $360, 3-month fee amounts to just 5% of your total loss (the opportunity loss + actual loss).
Question: I am planning to buy my first property in the next few months, and I imagine the 30-year traditional loans rates will also go down (correct me if I’m wrong). I imagine that will be a good time to lock-in a 30-year mortgage?
Question: What do you estimate the duration and timing of the plunge in interest rates, I'm asking in relation to timing a mortgage?
Question: I am confused, you are long TMV, but show $US10Y going down.
Answer Although the long-term charts show interest rates plunging before the can continue higher, in the short-term they are rising at lower degrees of magnitude on the 2 hour charts, allowing us to scale-out at overbought Panic, before the emotionally-driven herd returns to its senses. That's when we scale-out of long bonds, prior to each upside correction. By partially avoiding corrections, we "keep some powder dry" to allow re-purchase the same near the tail-end of each "sucker's rally" in stocks. Just as the length of the England increases dramatically when we use a shorter yardstick, so to does Bear market Volatility allow for faster compounding of our profit, by avoiding losses. The first step to make money, is to stop losing money. This is why our service pays for itself, because you can earn a profit far in excess of Buy & Hold or Short & Hold. Obviously "Holding" anything is a Bull Market Strategy, adapt to the Bear's volatility, and you can earn out-sized profits with our expert trading signals. In essence, the "tighter than a pin" ,"do-it-yourself" crowd pays $10 in order to save $1, via opportunity losses & never-ending round-trips back to or below cost. Losses are in direct proportion the capital invested.
Question: Is the Euro dropping first and then going UP?
Question: How can I better understand Elliott?
Answer updated Feb 2
Answer Don't expect instant gratification, our evolved & highly refined version of Elliott's legacy, requires not only lots of work, but also a high genius aptitude for pattern recognition. Your optimal strategy should be to act as the President of your own investment company and simply learn to distinguish a good Elliott count from a mediocre blunder. Realize that none of the Elliott gurus understand either, they simply lack the aptitude.
Question: Would I not be better off with high-yield bonds?
Question: Sir, I have been following you on Stockcharts for quite a while, frankly I am perplexed by your decision to sell volatility, TVIX, just AFTER it surged over 30%. Especially since you are super bullish?
Answer ( synopsis: for the same reason we covered shorts in the Dow & SPX for performance tracking - because the reversal to the bottom of the chart is in process...Bulls make money, & Bears make money, but PIGS get slaughtered)